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Electric vehicle sales in China are significantly impacting gasoline consumption, which has declined in recent months. The US Energy Information Administration attributes this trend to increased EV sales, slow economic growth, and a declining population, leading to reduced forecasts for petroleum demand in the coming years. As electric vehicles gain market share, the future of gasoline consumption in China appears increasingly uncertain.
Oil traders are questioning the International Energy Agency"s bearish outlook for 2025, as recent data indicates a significant decline in global oil inventories, averaging 1.16 million barrels a day, compared to the IEA"s forecast of a 380,000 barrels a day reduction. This discrepancy, equivalent to Poland"s daily oil demand, could result in an additional 70 million barrels over three months.
Crude oil futures are set for a weekly loss due to a supply glut and a strong dollar, with U.S. crude down over 2% and Brent nearly 2%. The International Energy Agency forecasts a surplus of over 1 million barrels per day in 2025, while OPEC has lowered its demand outlook for the fourth consecutive month amid soft demand in China.
Oil prices declined this week, with Brent crude down 2.7% and WTI down 3.3%, as Chinese demand continues to underperform amid an uneven economic recovery. Major forecasters have indicated bearish market fundamentals, with the International Energy Agency predicting that global oil supply will exceed demand by 2025, despite OPEC+ cuts. Additionally, U.S. crude inventories rose significantly, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell unexpectedly.
A French-Indonesian initiative aims to accelerate the closure of coal plants, highlighting the potential for private finance to play a crucial role in reducing emissions. The Coal Transition Commission advocates for relaxed sustainability criteria and innovative financing solutions, including blended finance and carbon credits, to support this transition. However, skepticism remains regarding the effectiveness of carbon markets and certain technologies proposed for emissions reduction.
At COP29, a fierce debate over the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) is anticipated, as wealthy nations seek to shift responsibilities to emerging donors and the private sector. Despite a doubling of climate finance to $1.46 trillion, a significant increase is needed to meet climate goals, with vulnerable nations facing a funding gap of $187-359 billion for adaptation efforts. Meanwhile, major oil and gas producers plan to expand production, undermining global climate commitments and risking lower returns for investors in the LNG sector.
The upcoming climate conference in Baku faces challenges as Donald Trump is likely to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement again, complicating negotiations on climate financing for developing countries. With demands for annual support between CHF 350 and 900 billion, the absence of U.S. contributions could undermine trust and progress in global climate efforts.
The UAE has submitted its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), aiming for a 47% emissions reduction by 2035 while planning to increase oil and gas production by a third. Critics argue that without addressing fossil fuel expansion, the UAE's climate commitments lack credibility in the fight against global warming.
Colombia is advocating for a new global treaty on traceability for critical minerals essential for the clean energy transition, aiming to present a proposal by COP30 in November 2025. This initiative follows a UN panel's recommendation for a transparency platform to ensure sustainable mineral extraction. While developed countries are still deliberating their support, experts emphasize the need for independent scrutiny and adherence to human rights in mining practices.
India's ambition to add 80 GW of new thermal power capacity by 2032 faces significant challenges due to a shortage of transformer steel and other raw materials. Experts warn that global supply chain issues and copper price volatility could delay projects by two to three years, impacting the country's power sector expansion plans. The need for a robust domestic supply chain for transmission equipment is critical, as the cost of developing infrastructure is expected to rise significantly in the coming years.
International Energy Agency
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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